For forty years, enterprise software has been sold by the seat. It recorded the work, routed the work and reported on the work, but people still did it. The budget for software was a rounding error next to the budget for labor.
That boundary is dissolving. Models can now read, reason, call tools and act across systems with enough reliability to own a task from start to finish. That opens the much larger services and labor budget, not just the IT budget.
The prize isn’t a smarter spreadsheet. It’s the job the spreadsheet was built to support.
Incumbents will respond by adding AI features to products priced per seat, built around human workflows. Some will do it well. But a feature that makes a person 20% faster is a different business from a product that does the work and is paid for the outcome. The second kind of company rebuilds the workflow around the agent, owns the result and captures far more of the value.
Not every AI product will last. Foundation models get more capable every quarter, and anything a general-purpose model can do out of the box will become a commodity. The companies that last will compound advantages a general model can’t download: proprietary data from doing the work, integrations into systems of record, earned trust in regulated settings, and feedback loops that make the product better every time it runs.
That is what we look for, in four areas where we think the shift is biggest.